François Cellier

Title

Is the 2000 Watt Society Sustainable?

Abstract

Recently a debate has arisen here at ETH Zurich centering on the question whether the envisaged “2000 Watt Society” is inevitable. Why shouldn’t we be allowed to use more energy? Wouldn’t it be more important to limit greenhouse gas emissions? In this lecture, we shall analyze whether the 2000 Watt Society is at all sustainable, and if so, what it will take to keep energy supply at that level after the end of ample and cheap fossil fuels. What are the implications of energy deprivation to our society? Can we stave off famine? How can we maximize our chances of getting through this world-wide crisis relatively unscathed? What are the pitfalls in designing and implementing a strategy that helps us achieve these goals? How much time have we got left? Predictions are notoriously difficult, especially when they concern the future. So, how sure can we be that our predictions are correct? How can we convince the public at large that there is a real and present danger looming in the not too distant future, despite the fact that at this point in time few signs of these problems are noticeable, and particularly, as the crude oil price has recently fallen to one fourth of the value it was at in early July?